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Academics See No Clear Exit for Johnson or Replacement PM_我的网站

一 |     British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is fighting for his political life but his opponents have few options for replacing him — so say two senior academics.,Calls for Johnson to go have reached fever pitch since Chris Pincher, the Conservative MP he appointed as deputy chief whip in February, was sacked for drunkenly groping two men at a posh private members' club in London.,This week it emerged that Johnson had been informed of earlier sexual assault claims against Pincher before he promoted him — leaving cabinet colleagues were embarrassed at having to defend the ever-changing official line.,Laura McAllister, professor of public policy at the Wales Governance Centre, told Sputnik nobody should take Johnson's political demise for granted.,"He survived so much in a way that few other politicians have ever managed to, particularly those in senior public office and prime minister," McAllister says. "He operates by a completely different set of rules and principles and ethics, which we would assume would be his undoing, but actually in reality he seems to have been able to ride the storm".,The academic points to Johnson's survival of the scandals around his advisor Dominic Cummings, 'Partygate', his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic before the Pincher affair. But she conceded that the spate of ministerial resignations led by Sajid Javid as health secretary and Rishi Sunak as chancellor of the exchequer were "hugely significant.","Two Cabinet members who sat in Cabinet yesterday morning had resigned without warning by the evening," the professor stresses "I think it's also fair to say that both of those individuals are thinking about their own potential bids to stand as the next leader of the Conservative Party and therefore timing is very much predicated on that.",McAllister says things have changed since the days of Margaret Thatcher, who resigned in 1990 after failing to win a leadership challenge by an overwhelming margin.,"[T]here was a much stronger Cabinet code, a ministerial code that was upheld broadly, or if it wasn't upheld, then there were consequences," she says "That's not the case now, and it seems very likely that Johnson will not resign of his own accord.","He still has a base of support, of course, even though that’s dwindling away now," she adds.,The academic also doubts that a general election would break the political deadlock.,"Whilst Labour are a few percentage points ahead, they clearly aren’t making sufficient headway to be confident of winning a majority," McAllister says. "The best they could hope for in the current polling would be a minority government and potentially having to seek coalition partners".,Those could include the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party (SNP), who would demand a repeat of the 2014 independence referendum as the price of their support. Ironically, independence for Scotland and its 59 parliamentary seats would shore up the Conservative majority in Westminster and make Labour nigh on unelectable.,"[Labour leader] Keir Starmer has already ruled out any deals with the SNP for obvious constitutional reasons, and therefore with Plaid Cymru in Wales," she points out, "So it seems unlikely that that route to power is open".,McAllister believes a new Tory leader would at least enjoy a "honeymoon period" bounce in the polls.,"And who knows, were Johnson to be defenestrated, it might be that a new leader might choose to capitalize on the honeymoon period and call an earlier election," she speculates.,Beleaguered BoJo Battles With Opposition at Weekly PM's Questions12:52 GMT,No 'Coup', But Then Who?,Mark Garnett, a politics professor at Lancaster University and author of the books "The British Prime Minister in an Age of Upheaval" and "From Anger to Apathy: The British Experience" thinks Johnson has no hope of survival. But he does not see how the party can push the PM out if he refuses to jump.,He says Javid and Sunak's resignations are "serious blows" to Johnson, but they are only "symptoms of a more general crisis of leadership".,"Johnson has been involved in too many incidents which raise questions about his personal integrity," Garnett says, with ministers told to defend the PM against allegations that turned out to be true. "In effect, they have been asked to lie in public on his behalf. Their patience has finally snapped.",But the professor does not see the near simultaneous resignations as a "coup", stressing: "The most surprising thing is that ministers have tolerated Johnson for so long".,While Sunak was seen as the favorite to succeed Johnson just six months ago "he is being held at least partly responsible for the country's economic problems and his chances of becoming prime minister are now very remote," Garnett says. "Sajid Javid's chances are greater, but Conservative members (who make the final decision) seem more attracted to the Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, who has not resigned.",The academic believes MPs are worried that Johnson is now an "electoral liability" who could cost them their seats at the next general election. "The party has just lost two by-elections in crucial seats, and the main reason given by those who voted against them was Boris Johnson's leadership," he stresses.,But the problem of how to remove Johnson from office if he will not quit remains.,"Currently the party's rules make it impossible to hold a vote of confidence for another year," Garnett points out. "It is very likely that those rules will be changed within the next ten days". But he believes if a vote could be held now, "Johnson would certainly lose and be forced to resign".。

二 |     참석자들 단상 오르는 등 방해로 파행                   26일 오후 서울 용산구 국방컨벤션에서 열린 국군사관학교 창설 공청회에서 한 참석자가 발언하고 있는 김홍철 국방부 정책실장에게 생수병을 든 채 다가서고 있다. (공동취재) 2026.8.26 뉴스1국방부가 육해공군 사관학교를 통합하는 ‘국군사관학교’ 창설을 위해 마련한 첫 공청회가 사관학교 동문들의 거센 반발 속에 파행 직전까지 가는 등 4시간 내내 어수선하게 진행됐다. 일부 참석자들은 안규백 국방부 장관을 겨냥해 “규백이 오라 그래” 등 고성과 욕설을 쏟아내고 단상에 올라 진행을 막기도 했다.국방부가 26일 서울 용산구 국방컨벤션에 개최한 공청회는 시작 전부터 한 예비역이 단상에 올라 국방부의 정책 설명을 생략하라고 요구했고 이를 제지하는 과정에서 몸싸움과 고성이 오갔다. 방청석에선 “깡패들이 난장판을 부린다” “누가 깡패냐 이 OO아” 등 욕설까지 오갔다. 찬성 측 패널에게는 “정부 앞잡이”라는 야유가 쏟아졌다.각 군 사관생도를 포함한 300여 명이 참석한 공청회에선 전문가 찬반이 팽팽히 맞섰다. 찬성 측은 3군 통합교육을 통한 합동성 강화와 교육 경쟁력 제고, 규모의 경제를 통한 투자 확대 필요성을 강조했다. 반대 측은 각 군의 전문성과 정체성이 약화될 수 있는 데다 정부가 통합이라는 결론을 미리 정해놓고 충분한 검증과 공론화 없이 정책을 밀어붙이고 있다고 비판했다.국방부는 학령인구 감소와 미래전 대응, 합동성 강화 등을 통합 필요성으로 제시했다. 국방부는 이날 제기된 의견 등을 수렴해 9월 추가 공청회를 거쳐 10월 국군사관학교 창설 세부 계획을 발표할 예정이다.。

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